Speciality Food January 2024

6 @specialityfood 15 key food, drink and retail trends for 2024 1 SUSTAINABILITY The increasing awareness of environmental impact through food and drink consumption has heavily influenced market dynamics, with ShelfNow reporting a heightened demand for sustainable food brands. “Notably, between 2020 and 2023, our platform recorded an average 120% year-on-year increase in sales of products with sustainable packaging,” said marketing manager, Athena Lee. “Concern for the planet influences the eco-minded home cook more than ever as the effects of climate change become a daily reality that we must all grapple with,” added Stylus’ Mandy Saven. “There is a desire to safeguard the planet, and this is reflected in people’s cooking and dining behaviours. However, the stark reality of the cost-of- living crisis is that consumers must reconcile the tensions between affordability and sustainability.” “In reality, shopping behaviours are not solely guided by altruism,” agrees Kate Kehoe of FMCG Gurus, whose 2023 data shows eight out of 10 people globally would be more likely to trust a company that farms regeneratively. “They are conscious of the impact of climate change on food production systems, and the role agriculture has to play. Brands must showcase resourcefulness across the supply chain to align with consumer values.” Retailers and brands should also, though, remember that “environmental messages can be overwhelming, particularly during uncertain times, and the association of such products with higher prices can deter customers. Therefore, brands should emphasise the value of environmental products by highlighting additional benefits.” 2 FLAVOURS LESS TRAVELLED Authenticity is one of the key drivers behind Bidfood's 2024 trends report, with 56% of consumers saying they would pay more for a product or dish if they perceived it as authentic. “This is heavily reinforced in our Flavours Less Travelled trend, giving consumers the opportunity to feel their sense of adventure by exploring cuisines in their most original format.” The cuisines most piquing interest are Caribbean, Eastern European, and Mexican. “There’s growing demand for Caribbean dishes like rich, spicy stews that feature seafood, indigenous vegetables and meats such as goat,” says Bidfood, which adds that Eastern European food is also becoming more well-known and appreciated thanks to formats familiar to the UK. Speciality Food has already reported on Tequila and other Mexican spirits and drinks as a huge emerging market in Britain, and Bidfood says that although 44% of consumers have already tried Mexican cuisine, they now want to experience it in more traditional formats. “Operators should look towards authentic classics like marinated pork belly tacos, or charred corn elotes with chicken.” Whole Foods Market’s trends report for 2024 similarly picks out Mexican as a ‘must-stock’ for retailers. “Ingredients and foods that haven’t always been mainstream are now coming to the forefront. Consumers are exploring flavours of Mexico beyond the taco. You can now find products like botana sauces, to-go tamales and tepache ready-to-drink beverages on shelves.” 3 FOOD FASHION Stylus has noticed a pattern of prestigious fashion and jewellery brands launching into hospitality “with premium eateries serving as accessible entry points for consumers wanting to experience a touch of brand magic.” The forecasting expert says luxury brands can benefit from developing complementary food or drink offerings that “encapsulate their aspirational attributes.” “For instance, a shopper might not be able to purchase a Prada bag, but they’ll relish the chance to tuck into a delectable pastry from the Prada Caffe at Harrods in London.” 4 FEELING THE HEAT Globally-sourced chilli peppers are taking off as consumers seek ever more complex ways to experience heat, says Whole Foods Market, citing products such as My Neighbours The Dumplings Chilli Sauce, Wilderbee Hot Honey, and The Garden of Eva Watermelon Chili Jam as products that typify what customers are looking for. It expects speciality chillies such as Carolina Reaper, Scorpion, Guajillo and Hungarian Goathorn to be seen more widely, be that fresh, whole, ground, pickled, preserved in oil, or used in sauces, dips and relishes. 5 TECH ShelfNow predicts a sharp rise in the number of food and drinks businesses utilising AI and machine learning, says Athena Lee, with the insight expert anticipating more adoption of AI-powered solutions that revolutionise supply chain management. “By analysing sales data and other factors, AI can accurately predict demand patterns, allowing businesses to optimise inventory levels, reduce costs, and minimise food waste,” Athena says. “These technological advancements streamline operations and enhance the food and beverage buyer experience. Personalised product recommendations, real-time order tracking, and chatbot support are just a few of the ways AI is increasing buyer satisfaction.” 6 MIND AND MOOD Around 48% of consumers are seeking out foods that directly impact their physical wellbeing, and 71% say they feel the aroma of food and drink can help boost their mood, says Bidfood. “This trend centres around consumers shifting priorities when it comes to their health and wellbeing. Not just their physical health, but also their mental health and state of mind.” Whole Foods Market has also picked up on this growing market sector, but with a particular leaning towards women’s health. “On social media we’ve seen hormonal remedy recipes go viral, including raw carrot salad for oestrogen management, seed cycling energy bites for each cycle phase, and ‘sleepy girl mocktails’. We’re seeing more brands making products to support periods, pregnancy, postpartum, menopause and even sleep that address life stages and symptoms previously swept under the rug.” 7 BRITISH FUSION Although consumers are becoming more adventurous, they’re still reluctant to spend money on cuisines they aren’t familiar with. This is where British fusion comes in, with Bidfood revealing 68% of people find this concept appealing, and 35% feeling it bridges the gap between the exciting flavours of What does ‘real value’mean in speciality retail? T he annual reset is with us, and so too the promise of endless opportunities that a new horizon offers. What this fresh start of January has drawn my attention to, is the ever-present desire that the consumption we have nurtured over decades can be reeled back, whilst protecting the margin we businesses really need. It is that rebalance of real value… not as in the ‘discount stores’ type of value, but as in ‘paying the right price for what you get’ type of value. I had a discussion with a farmer recently around the question of actual value. His is a sophisticated, forward- looking farm. It supplies significant amounts of fantastic hard and soft fruits into the supermarkets, and us. We, and a few of our local independent peers, nudge towards accounting for a percent of his volume. I asked, ‘why do you supply us? Why bother, what is the real value?’ He had no answer. We chuckled about this, but realised the underlying truth is that we have never focused on what the real value of us, as independents selling his fruit, really is to him, and if we can’t frame that value then what right do we have to be trading his fantastic produce at all? Yes – support local, but I can buy, perhaps unwittingly, his produce in a number of regional markets, and our 1% is hardly going to keep his business afloat, and so buying local only works because it is subsidised by massive sales into the multiples. I do of course believe we provide value. In fact, I know we do. But all these years we and our agricultural partners have not had the courage to sit down and shake the proverbial tree, to establish what that real, actual, always-to-be- protected, value is. To take it a step further: I want to establish it, frame it and then loudly tell our community and customers about it, and the price it requires, explicitly. I am confident and comfortable that our customers STEFANO CUOMO MACKNADE will understand it, and not only appreciate it, but champion it, agreeing it is real value and as such requires the right price. So, let’s have a go, or at least a start, at establishing what that value we and our 1% might offer to the farmer. There is no question that selling a product locally, dealing directly with your community has a transcendency to it. Nurturing your very self through others is hugely powerful, and comes with great responsibility that few ever get the chance to hold. Farming is a commerce, but no matter how ‘gnarly’ a farmer may be, there is a deep attachment to the land and its stewardship. To be able to see the produce that is grown within a community being enjoyed and enriching that community is life affirming. Furthermore, that direct relationship both with consumers and operators that engage directly with their community is where intel can be gained. Us independents can act so nimbly that not only can we feed back to farmers what an example tranche of their customers are thinking, wanting and doing, from and with their produce, but if we engage properly with the growers, we can in turn look to maximise the value that our sites and spaces can deliver for them. And we can do this in a way that the megalithic supermarkets can’t. We are the human value, the hippocampus. Delivering small quantity, but the greatest quality – we not only support the emotive dream of the agrarians, but are the mechanism that starts to deliver the real profitability to them too…not just through our 1% of sales but through what our 1% of sales says and does. Sure, the mass channels will support the breathing and subsequent continuity of life of a business, but it is us that hold the memory, shape the learning to navigate the future, and perceive and understand what is required to flourish. This year I am looking forward to deep conversations with our farmers. Too often we focus on our craftsmen and women, our artisans. If we can crack the actual value we provide our forward-thinking farmers, then we start to shift the value discussion more permanently, from lowering prices to increasing margins. And we have not yet got onto government subsidies…not just for land management, but for food education and wellness. Themass channelswill support the breathing and subsequent continuity of life of a business, but it is us that hold thememory, shape the learning to navigate the future, and understand what is required to flourish Industry insiders let Speciality Food in on the categories, themes and trends that look set to shape consumer decisions as we head into a new year